We spoke briefly with President Trump, but unfortunately he cannot guarantee that the turmoil in the Middle East will be over by next week. This means that we remain in the dark for the time being regarding the recovered paper market as well. Just one more week to go in April – in practical terms, nothing. In geopolitics, however, it is an eternity in which developments can follow one another at breakneck speed. And all such developments can influence the markets.
The current situation on the waste paper market, or at least as it stood last Friday, suggests a degree of stability, to put it briefly. If we must mention one detail, it is the possibility that container rates for exports may turn out to be slightly lower. A few shipping lines have quoted slightly lower rates for container transports of textiles, for example, to certain destinations in Asia. Whether this will spill over to paper and plastics remains to be seen, but it cannot be ruled out that these lower rates are already being applied to transports of recovered paper in other European regions.
As far as prices are concerned, both mill buyers in export markets and those within Europe are holding back for the time being. Unlike during the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given in 2021, there appears to be no anxiety regarding timely deliveries. This is not surprising, as whereas at that time sailing around the Cape of Good Hope was the alternative, with sharply rising costs and transit times, this remains the norm until today due, among other things, to Houthi actions in the Red Sea involving attacks on and threats to shipping. Of course, we have had to factor in the higher fuel costs as an additional surcharge, but these have now been incorporated into the calculated transport costs to Asia and thus the selling prices.
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So, there is not much information on prices yet, let alone finalizing orders for May. That is still a bit premature. Things will become clearer in the coming days.
As regards both lower grades and middle and high grades, there currently seems to be no reason to assume that significant price fluctuations are imminent.
The situation is quite different when it comes to recycled plastics, for example. There, the massive price increases for virgin granulate are driving higher returns on regranulate. That’s only fair after so much hardship, and hopefully it will last for a while. But, as mentioned at the start of this market update, the only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain.
Perhaps we might apply the same reasoning to the takeover of Papresa in Spain announced in February. At the time, it was noted that it was doubtful whether the potential buyer, CL Grupo Industrial, would continue to produce newsprint or might convert that machine also to test liner. Time has overtaken this pending decision with the bankruptcy of Papresa on 21 April.
Looking at the situation realistically, the question now is whether paper will ever be produced at that site again.
And pulp producer Fibre Excellence, which operates two plants in Saint-Gaudens and Provence, France, filed for bankruptcy this week after efforts to find a buyer and discussions regarding state aid had not yet yielded results. The company is still attempting to continue production with the support of the French government.
Finally, some sad news from our sector in Venlo (NL), where recovered paper processor Collin was destroyed by fire this week.
Price indication
Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.
Look here at the Price chart >>
The price chart gives an indication of the price of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.