This week, the commercial court in Lille ruled in the case of the redressement judiciaire (suspension of payments) of Wiz Paper, Wizernes (France) that the company must be liquidated. This is bad news for the 147 employees but good for the market. A case of every cloud having a silver lining. The court had apparently sought sound advice and had taken into account, among other things, the difficult market for new recycled liner board in its decision. Wiz Paper produced 220,000 tonnes of recycled liner board, produced with occ (cardboard) and mixed paper.
Illustrating the challenging market in the chain, news also emerged that IP is to close five former DS Smith packaging factories in Germany, namely in Mannheim, Donauwörth, Paderborn and Hövelhof, while part of the Hamburg site will also be closed. IP had previously announced the closure of its site in Valgelon-la-Rochette in France.
And the recovered paper market? A market that also depends on parties in the chain who (have to) disseminate this type of information can hardly be considered positive. The market is quiet. There is not much demand for recovered paper and when it comes to prices, they are only pointing in one direction: downwards. Strikingly, waste paper processors do not really seem under pressure to sell at any price. Opinions vary considerably. While some, as might be expected, are taking as many orders as possible in anticipation of expected price reductions, others are taking a wait-and-see approach. Unlike the paper and board industry, recovered paper companies have always felt that it is useful to have some stock at the end of the year. This can be used to play with valuations.
So what is the wise thing to do in this situation?
If it were up to the experts of Fastmarkets, who shared their views on the waste paper market during the Repacar conference in Madrid, we are not yet anywhere near a turnaround in the market. Overcapacity dominates the paper and board market, and it is expected that it will take quite some time before a balance between supply and demand for new (finished) paper is achieved.
Furthermore, uncertainty about the future of the market was fueled by a lack of clarity about the implementation and measures to be taken regarding exports outside the EU/OECD. The ERPA, also present in Madrid, had no information about this. Quite worrying. But the trade seems to be taking it a bit like the import ban on waste paper in China at the time: it won't be that bad. In the end, it did happen, and this month China itself has closed a loophole in the import
ban by subjecting dry recycled pulp to additional checks. It is easy to guess what the consequences of this will be. The trick with shredded cardboard (kls) no longer works. And wet recycled pulp will not be able to compete with virgin unbleached cellulose.
In the short term, therefore, recovered paper prices will fall on both the Asian and European (and American) local markets, so for the time being, there is no good news.
However, everything can change quickly, as sentiment plays a significant role. If for example there is a possibility that the war in Eastern Europe will end and business relations could normalize, optimism will prevail. We will have to wait and see.
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Price indication
Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.
Look here at the Price chart >>
The price chart gives an indication of the price of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.