Market Report
Outlook for exports uncertain due to war
NL-Tilburg, 8 March 2026
A week ago, we reported on the market in a rapidly changing environment. War had just broken out in the Middle East. It was clear that this would have consequences for both world trade and the export of recycled products to Asia: any event in the Middle East that affects the free passage of shipping traffic through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has an impact on tariffs and prices. That would also be the case now. The question was, how?
After a week of holding our breath, however, not much has happened in that regard. This is strange in itself, because markets normally react very quickly and strongly. But this time, nothing of the sort has happened (yet). We can note that in previous events, shipping companies often immediately introduced rate increases and/or surcharges, often with retroactive effect, which also prompted trading parties to take action. Not this time. At least, not yet.
We considered informing our clients about possible force majeure situations, but the shipping companies remained remarkably quiet during the first few days. And even after a week, which is a long time in a war but also in volatile commodity markets, only one shipping company announced last Friday that it would be implementing a surcharge on shipments to the Indian subcontinent. This will take effect from 16 March, i.e. shipments with that B/L date. This is quite different from the retroactive application to shipments that were already underway, as has so often been the case.
The rest of the shipping lines will undoubtedly follow suit, but as long as we can plan ahead and discuss sales prices with customers that allow us to incorporate the intended rate increases, that is quite acceptable.
As this initial signal has only just been given, we have not yet been able to determine who will pay for the potentially rising shipping costs: the supplier, the customer, or both a part. This should become clear in the coming days.
The market could go in any direction, depending on demand in exporting countries and stocks there, and whether or not there is a need to continue ordering recovered paper. After all, deliveries from the US and Japan may be less affected, but higher oil prices will also influence shipping rates there. It is also possible that these will be absorbed by the shipping companies. That depends on the container market. Is there sufficient return freight to bring containers back from West to East to reduce the imbalance? Given the current very low rates to the East, this does not seem to be the case at the moment. But
with reports that there could be delays of three weeks on deliveries from Asia, the imbalance could become a lot smaller. We will have to wait and see.
Anyway, here too, every disadvantage has an advantage. Even the mere news that there could be weeks of delays in deliveries from Asia has fuelled demand for recycled plastic this week, as virgin plastic may also face higher shipping rates. And the potential delay has caused nervousness in this market where stocks are low because there was an big oversupply at very low prices.
Perhaps the recovery of the recycling markets will start with plastic? That would be welcome, because that is where the need is greatest.
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Price indication
Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.
Look here at the Price chart >>
The price chart gives an indication of the price of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.