Market Report

Outook September better but more is needed 

NL-Tilburg, 30 August 2026

Looking ahead to September, it seems that the optimism in the recovered paper market is set to be reflected in higher prices, including for low grades. There is demand for cardboard grades in the export market and, although buyers in Asia are resisting higher prices for all sorts of reasons, it seems almost inevitable. Export prices are already higher than domestic prices, but there needs to be a substantial price difference to tackle the challenges in the export markets. Freight rates that rise one moment and are then reduced the next; a US dollar that had slipped slightly but has been recovering somewhat over the last few days; and then all sorts of customs checks that come unexpectedly but, when they do, require immediately a substantial outlay. Having to retrieve container(s) that have already been handed over just to have them inspected. That ‘brief’ delay can sometimes last for days due to a lack of capacity at customs, meaning containers are sometimes left on the quay and then have to be loaded onto the next vessel, whilst the demurrage clock is ticking. So, it is not known how many checks there will be or when they will take place, but the costs involved are enormous – and how can you then compare export prices with local ones?  The only way is to factor these kinds of risks heavily into the price, meaning charging higher export prices. And that happens with mixed results. But the positive thing is that we are increasingly in a seller’s market, so the buyer will ultimately have to foot the bill for this sort of problems.

It’s no different locally. There, too, freight costs are difficult to estimate, so higher selling prices are needed. This is already working to some extent, but so far it has had little impact on local ex-works prices. The fact that the European paper and board industry is still receiving sufficient raw materials is in itself surprising, given the high demand for exports, the lack of price increases in August, and the fact that prices in France and Spain have actually significantly been reduced. The gamble taken there could come back to haunt them, now that demand is rising and generation is still far from normal levels.

The situation is more or less similar for middle and high grades. 

Demand is strong and generation is low. With the gradual ramp-up to full capacity at Essity UK’s Prudhoe plant,   demand in the UK is rising, and higher prices are also being achieved in the export market. However, the same shipping difficulties naturally arise with these grades too, so what remains after all the effort spent on organising transport justifies a significant price difference. This appears to be partly covered for September, but there is still no full coverage of the sharply rising costs we are facing.

Price indication

Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.

Look here at the Price chart >> 
  
The price chart gives an indication of the price  of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.