Market Report

Uncertainty exports influences low grades market

NL-Tilburg, 13 Septeber 2026

With substantial price rises this month for low grades in the US – ranging from $5 for coated paper to $20 per tonne for cardboard grades – we can expect prices in Europe to eventually follow suit. However, this will have to be driven by exports, and the trends there are, to put it mildly, not entirely clear.
There are also so many factors influencing demand – and therefore prices – that it is no longer possible to keep track of them, let alone predict them.
For instance, significant freight rate increases have been announced for shipments in October, ranging from as much as $100 to $500 per container, depending on the shipping line, destination and availability of containers. October is still a long way off, but you have to factor this in when finalising orders.
And then, of course, there is the question of demand, which for Europe is expected to come mainly from India. South-East Asian buyers are still turning to American suppliers because of the better quality fibre and a somewhat more predictable supply. If supplies from there start to dry up, they will look more towards Europe. That is not really the case yet.

So it was mainly India that set the tone for purchasing in Europe. Not to mention Turkey, of course, as shipments there are still the least problematic, whilst demand is also strong.
And as there was still an increase in demand in India at the start of the week,  it was obvious that prices would rise further. The reasoning was that during the monsoon season there is always a lot of rain, which means less waste paper can be collected locally.
Until the end of last week, when it was reported that less rain had fallen than ‘normal’ and so more had been collected locally than expected. Consequently, the market is now taking a wait-and-see approach as to whether further price increases are actually necessary. So, in effect, we are back to square one.
The coming week will then reveal whether there will still be some price increases possible and, not least, what the supply situation is like for the local European paper and

board industry.
At present, there appears to be little need to adjust local prices, whilst the differences with export prices are significant. So this situation cannot really continue for long. It will either be an increase locally or a decrease in exports, or a bit of both. We shall see.
Demand for medium and higher-grade grades remains as strong as ever, providing a solid foundation for prices.

This week it was announced that Smurfit Westrock Parenco, Renkum (NL), has been granted a licence to convert PM1 from graphic to packaging paper and to expand capacity. Although there are apparently no plans at present to carry out this conversion, a licence has at least been granted to do so when the time is right.

Price indication

Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.

Look here at the Price chart >> 
  
The price chart gives an indication of the price  of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.