Market Report

German statistics show worrying trend

NL-Tilburg, 6 July 2025
 

The low (packaging) grades recovered paper have thus been reduced in price across the board on the local European market for July. Also this week, several buyers adjusted their prices further downwards where there were already adjustments last week. This was motivated with lots of stock of recovered paper and little prospect of an improved order position for new finished paper. Since a downside always has an upside, it can perhaps be argued that with the local price cuts only continuing, the gap with export prices is widening. And that is the only remedy against local oversupply at the moment.

For quite some time there have been hardly any exports to Asia from north-western Europe and the U.K. This has immediately turned around after the further local price cuts at the end of June. There are now plenty of cardboard grade volumes being loaded into exports again. Some challenges here are the sometimes unreliable availability of containers after bookings. This does vary from shipping company to shipping company, by the way. Positive is that the weaker Dollar, which led to a disadvantage of a few Dollars per tonne, has generally been compensated by most buyers in Asia. So far, so good.
Saturation is also emerging among middle and high grades. Thin order books and pressure on selling prices have also made graphic paper producers cautious.

Statistics in Germany indicated that sales of graphic paper in the first five months of this year had fallen by over 247,000 tonnes (14.4%) to 1.522 million tonnes. And as for packaging paper and board there was an increase in sales of over 63,000 tonnes (1.2%) to 5.351 million tonnes, on balance that still means a decline of 180,000 tonnes of paper and board.

Not surprisingly, then, that the paper industry is taking a wait and see attitude, despite the holiday period when traditionally there is less generation of recovered paper. And yes we notice that less is coming in, but it is noteworthy that this is not accompanied by more demand for de-inking grades of recovered paper and the usually rising prices this time of the year. None of this is dramatic, but where the expectation was that stockpiling by the paper and board industry would cause prices of those grades to pick up, we do not detect much of that yet. Here and there €5 per tonne is added, but there are also intentions for

(small) price reductions or less intake of recovered paper.  
As far as tissue grades are concerned, things are no different and in the meantime this has also led to more supply of these grades in exports to Asia and we do see prices going down there. Trial orders in exports to South America have also not (yet) been followed by more orders.

All in all, not a great waste paper market at the moment and expectations of better prospects have not materialized for the time being either.
Indeed, with the widening gap between higher export prices in Asia and local European purchase prices, a miracle will almost have to happen to keep up export prices for low grades. If that is going to be difficult in the summer months, we should start bracing for the period there after.

Price indication

Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 90 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.

Look here at the Price chart >> 
  
The price chart gives an indication of the price  of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.