Market Report

Occ price up in Asia

NL-Tilburg, 14 December 2025

Unexpectedly, at least for us, buyers in South-East Asia increased their purchase prices for recovered cardboard grades by $5 per tonne this week. We had not anticipated this so close to Christmas. But predictions are always difficult. And with rising prices in the US, apparently caused by already low waste paper generation and now also snowfall in some regions, which could lead to more collection problems, there has been upward pressure on prices. This is why mill buyers were looking to Europe again. In Europe, demand from India has been good in recent weeks, so buyers in India followed the price increases of their colleagues further east. A turnaround in the market? An increase of £5 per tonne is certainly not significant enough to say that, but the question is whether there will be any more supply at these slightly higher prices. Prices in India are already higher, so why would waste paper processors suddenly switch back to South-East Asia? In our opinion more is needed. It should also be noted that the £5 increase for European occ/cardboard in Euros cannot be fully realised now that the dollar has lost value following the Fed's interest rate cut this week. However, that does not mean that demand cannot increase, which ultimately depends on the reasons for the price increase. If stocks are low in the paper and board industry and they want to stock up before Chinese New Year, there could well be a (short-lived?) upturn in demand. With local prices in Europe already below export levels, this will certainly put upward pressure on local prices for cardboard grades as well.
And with the possibility of rising prices, the motivation to sell is declining. So, let's see what we will experience next week.

Euwid reported that Italian Cartiera del Polesine in Adria will stop producing recycled liner board for a few weeks and that their mill in Loreo will be closed. The Loreo mill produced 70,000 tonnes of test liner and fluting annually. It is easy to forget that, amid the frenzy of capacity expansions in this sector, small mills like this have managed to survive. But ultimately, it seems they are destined to disappear.

Speaking of capacity expansions, rumour has it in the UK that Smurfit Westrock is in talks with Eren/Modern to take over the as yet unstarted recycled liner board mill on the site of the former UPM Shotton at Deeside. The machine built there will produce 750,000 tonnes, and Smurfit Westrock would then cease production of its recycled liner board mills in Birmingham (190,000 tonnes) and Snodland (310,000 tonnes).
For what the rumour is worth. Although such a deal does not seem

illogical. On balance, it would still bring more capacity to the market, but less than expected. Or should we say less than feared? 

Also in Euwid this week: Sappi's deal with UPM to create a joint-venture to optimise sales, and therefore also production. Furthermore, we are seeing a decline in the use of recovered paper at tissue mills in Europe. On the one hand, this is a consequence of less suitable recovered paper being available due to consolidation in the graphic sector, which is leading to structurally higher prices for these grades of recovered paper. On the other hand, capacity expansions are also leading to an increasing supply of cellulose (pulp), which is a cheaper alternative. A direct consequence of this is that we are seeing a significant decline in the high levels of prices for printing grades. For December, we are seeing price reductions of €5 to €20 per tonne, depending on the region and grade.    

Price indication

Price indication in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex works are now between € 60 and € 80 per tonne. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.

Look here at the Price chart >> 
  
The price chart gives an indication of the price  of mixed paper, separately collected, in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last 10 years.
Scrolling over the top of the columns gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.